Based on our market-by-market analysis across our global analyst team, by 2030E, we expect c50% of all B2C car transactions globally to be conducted online versus 2% today. We think this will reduce c$50bn of costs from the automotive distribution ecosystem (1-2% of global Gross Merchandise Value), leading to structurally higher margins for car dealers and OEMs. Combining this benefit with top line growth, we think the US$200bn (2019) automotive distribution global profit pool could nearly double by 2030E. We have seen (1) new OEM EV start-ups with online-led distribution models gain share and achieve high margins; (2) Incumbent OEMs respond by adopting an agency model for new car distribution; (3) New online only car dealers emerge attracting significant capital; (4) Incumbent dealers and online marketplaces re-invent their business models to enable online transactions. Within just a few years, it will be possible for consumers to purchase almost any car online. UBS Evidence Lab data suggests consumers across five markets are ready for the transition. 20% of respondents said they had already purchased a car online, versus 60% who said they were willing to do so.
We pool insights across auto, retail, and internet analysts globally to assess how online car retailing could transform the current landscape. We look at four scenarios over the next 10 years, and include 9 case studies from five continents. The analysis is supported by survey data from UBS Evidence Lab covering five markets
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These parochial state laws also make the distribution system for new cars incredibly inefficient and expensive, one factor in the financial problems facing the Big Three in Detroit. Online sales would help companies like GM and Chrysler align production to sales better by allowing more people to buy their cars built-to-order from the factory, rather than having Detroit send out truckloads of vehicles to sit around on dealer lots for months in the hopes that a rebate offer will finally entice someone to buy them.
Texas inspired car dealers in other states to seek similar protections from competition. Arizona, for instance, passed a law that not only blocked manufacturers from selling cars online but also restricted manufacturers from offering other services online, such as financing. Other states followed suit, as car dealers feared predictions that only half of them would survive the next seven years thanks to competition from the Internet. Since then, the manufacturers have largely given up the fight.
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We team up with local drivers just like you that want to sell your car online but aren't sure how to do it. Turn your car over to our online marketplace, and we'll handle finding a new owner for your car. Our new car dealer in Jacksonville is a great place to find out your trade-in value and sell your car online because our staff will value, treat, and sell your old car like it's their own.
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Americans became accustomed to buying a car from dealer stock. Traditionally, we map out some idea of what we want through online research. Then we negotiate with a dealership to get as close as we can to our desires and often drive our new car home the very same day we first set foot in the dealership.
Only a small handful of manufacturers sell cars directly from factory to buyer. Tesla does so with 100% of its products. Volvo does this with its new electric vehicles, like the new C40 Recharge SUV that is ordered online and picked up at a dealership. Many electric startups, like Rivian and Lucid Motors, follow the Tesla model.
Manufacturers who sell cars directly to buyers, like Tesla, do not negotiate car prices. But, when ordering a car from most manufacturers, you are still working through a dealership. You can negotiate a price just as you can when purchasing from dealer stock. 59ce067264